Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
